Spotlight On China

Economic Growth & World Resources

China was once the sleeping giant. Not anymore! The giant has awoken and the world will feel the swirling winds of its awakened breath as it begins to move around and look for food and a home, or perhaps it will migrate and have many homes!

China has the largest population in the world and it is still growing. Even more alarming for the elite developed countries – China is developing. In 2003 China became the biggest importer of oil, overtaking Japan and probably overtaking the USA in years to come. Not only are China’s oil fields showing signs of depletion; but their capacity to grow the rice they need for the increasing population is also showing signs of depletion.

ARGONAUT Population

China’s rice stocks are declining and its rice production is also declining, causing it to import rice from Vietnam and Thailand in 2004, and it is expected to continue to import more in 2005. China is moving from being a largely rural based society with a large number of farmers producing the food to being an urban based (consumer) society. So many Chinese are migrating away from China's agricultural heartlands such as Anhui province in central China that five to 15 percent of the cropland is not planted.

A growing affluence amongst urban Chinese has translated into a increased demand for fruit and meat, rather than the traditional rice. In response to this the government caused rice farmers to convert their land to that of fruit production. However, much of the land now lies wasted and the fruit plagued by fungus and continued loss of the crops. Meanwhile national rice stocks fail and yearly production diminishes.

Because Chinese couples want a male child the families are aborting female fetuses. This has created a growing gender imbalance. The male surplus is rising and is now close to 120 boys for each 100 girls, in eight to ten years China will have 40 to 60 million missing women. The potential for war is growing, not because the Chinese people are an ‘evil’ race; but because of overpopulation, the growing demand for scarce resources and the climate changes decreasing water and food supplies.

Sexual Time Bomb In China – read the report in Unknown Country Unknown Country

Yellow River Drying up - Millions of farmers might be forced to migrate BBC Report

Spanish Fury Over Chinese Shoes BBC Report

China is importing as much oil as it possibly can

BBC Report

China is not the biggest oil consumer in the world, that prize goes to America, nor is it the biggest importer - which is also the USA. What China outdoes the rest of the world at is the growth of its appetite. Ten years ago China imported no oil at all. Last year it overtook Japan to become the world's second biggest importer. Its thirst continues to grow. Imports are expected to rise another 40% this year. For the international oil market it has all come as something of a shock.

Car mania

The reasons are not hard to find. The BBC Beijing bureau overlooks the city's second ring road. Ten years ago, the road was devoid of traffic, the odd bus, a few taxis, and lots and lots of bicycles. Today it is gridlock. At five in the afternoon it is more like a six lane parking lot. In the last few year, the Chinese have taken to cars with alacrity. Beijing now has more than two million private cars. Many are small hatchbacks, but there are a growing number of hulking gas guzzling sports utility vehicles. Even the Hummer has made it to the streets of Beijing.

Reserves

Then there is the problem of supply. In the 1950s, China discovered massive oil reserves in the far north of the country near the border with Siberia. For 40 years the Da Qing oil field has kept China self sufficient. But just as China's demand for oil is surging, the pumps on the Da Qing oil field are starting to splutter. The search for oil has become frantic. In the deserts of China's far west, teams of oil men have been searching for more than a decade, but so far nothing.

Further afield

In the South China Sea, exploration rigs have been test drilling for even longer. They have found quite a lot of gas, but so far no big new finds. China has tried to buy up oil fields in central Asia with mixed results. It is trying to persuade the Russians to build a pipeline from Siberia to keep the Da Qing oil refineries pumping, but the Japanese are also competing for that pipeline deal. The result is that China is facing an energy shortage. Even its massive coal supplies cannot keep up with demand.

Outage

In the factories of east China this summer the lights have been going out. In one Taiwanese owned factory they say they lose their power supply for at least two days a week, and every night. The factory has installed four huge diesel generators to keep production going, but the generators need fuel too. The only people who seem happy are China's shipbuilders.

On the slipways of Shanghai and Guangzhou, armies of welders are assembling a fleet of new ships to bring energy and materials to China, iron ore and natural gas from Australia, and oil from anywhere China can get it. China is negotiating with Sudan and Nigeria, Russia and Iran. Only one thing seems certain, China's appetite for oil shows no sign of slowing.

Today China has 10 million private cars - by 2020 that number will be 120 million.

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© 2006 by St.Clair